Prediksi Penyebaran COVID-19 dengan SIR Model

Fransina Natasha Cleopatra Repi; Viktor Vekky Ronald Repi

doi:10.47313/jig.v26i1.2706

Authors

Fransina Natasha Cleopatra Repi Fakultas Kedokteran, Universitas Kristen Maranatha
Viktor Vekky Ronald Repi Program Studi Teknik Fisika, Universitas Nasional Jakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47313/jig.v26i1.2706

Keywords:

COVID-19, pemodelan, prediksi, suseptibilitas, infeksi, model matematis

Abstract

Coronavirus (COVID-19) adalah pandemi yang telah menyerang lebih dari 170 negara di seluruh dunia. Jumlah pasien yang terinfeksi dan meninggal telah meningkat dengan kecepatan yang mengkhawatirkan di hampir semua negara yang terkena dampak. Pemerintah di seluruh dunia telah dipaksa untuk mengambil keputusan kritis dan sulit sebagai langkah untuk menahan penyebaran penyakit. Teknik peramalan memainkan peran yang sangat penting dalam menghasilkan prediksi yang akurat. Pada penelitian ini menggunakan model Susceptible Infected and Recovered (SIR) yaitu mengkategorikan teknik peramalan menjadi dua jenis, yaitu teori stokastik / model matematika dan teknik sains data / pembelajaran mesin. Data yang dikumpulkan dari platform open source juga penting dalam peramalan. Dalam penelitian ini data set yaitu diakses dari data Base WHO. Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan bahwa perbandingan model dan semua kumpulan data memiliki R₀ > 0.98 yang tinggi. Perhitungan model dari awal wabah hingga 5 Mei 2020 diungkapkan. Simulasi memperkirakan wabah akan berakhir pada tanggal 9 Juni 2020 dimana puncak wabah terjadi pada tanggal 20 April 2020. Simulasi hingga 19 Mei 2020 memperkirakan wabah akan berakhir pada tanggal 29 Juni 2020 dimana puncak wabah terjadi pada 20 Mei 2020.

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