Forecast of COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia with the Triple Exponential Smoothing Algorithm

Article Sidebar

PDF
Published: Nov 17, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.47313/jig.v23i2.933
Keywords:
forecast algorithm triple exponential smoothing COVID-19 coronavirus

Main Article Content

Ruliyanta Ruliyanta
Program Studi Teknik Elektro, Universitas Nasional, Jakarta
Endang Retno Nugroho
Profgram Studi Teknik Elektro, Universitas Nasional

Abstract

The Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), also known as COVID-19, has brought a worldwide threat to the living. The whole world is making extraordinary efforts to combat the spread of this deadly disease in terms of infrastructure, finances, data sources, protective equipment, life risk treatment, and several other resources. Artificial intelligence researchers focus their knowledge of expertise on developing mathematical models to analyze this epidemic situation using shared national data. To contribute to the welfare of the living community, this article proposes to utilize the Triple Exponential Smoothing algorithm to predict the development of COVID-19 throughout the country by utilizing real-time information from the Task Force for the Acceleration of Handling of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Indonesia. Based on forecasting results, in Indonesia by the end of 2020, COVID-19 will continue to grow significantly, the number of confirmed COVID-19 people is 386,571 people with a death toll of 15,622.

Article Details

How to Cite
Ruliyanta, R., & Nugroho, E. R. (2020). Forecast of COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia with the Triple Exponential Smoothing Algorithm. Jurnal Ilmiah Giga, 23(2), 61–68. https://doi.org/10.47313/jig.v23i2.933
Issue
Vol. 23 No. 2 (2020): Volume 23 Edisi 2 Tahun 2020
Section
Articles

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

  1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
  2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
  3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).

References

W. World Health Organization, “WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 11 March 2020,” WHO Director General’s speeches, no. March, p. 4, 2020.

World Health Organization (WHO), “Coronavirus disease 2019 Situation Report 51 11th March 2020,” World Health Organization, vol. 2019, no. March, p. 2633, 2020.

World Health Organization, “Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: implications for infection prevention precautions. Scientific brief, 09 July 2020,” vol. 19, pp. 1–20, 2020.

World Health Organization(WHO), “Infection prevention and control of epidemic- and pandemic-prone acute respiratory infections in health care,” WHO Guidelines, pp. 1–156, 2014.

Organización Mundial de la Salud, “Advice on the use of masks in the context of COVID-19: interim guidance-2,” Guía Interna de la OMS, no. April, pp. 1–5, 2020.

L. Morawska and J. Cao, “Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2: The world should face the reality,” L. Morawska and J. Cao Environment International 139 (2020) 105730, no. January 2020.

COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, “Indonesia Mobility changes,” google.com/covid19/mobility, no. July 12, 2020.

J. N. Dhanwant and V. Ramanathan, “Forecasting COVID 19 growth in India using Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (S.I.R) model,” 2020.

F. A. M. Cássaro and L. F. Pires, “Can we predict the occurrence of COVID-19 cases? Considerations using a simple model of growth,” Science of the Total Environment, vol. 728, 2020.

R. Gupta, S. K. Pal, and G. Pandey, “A Comprehensive Analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak situation in India,” medRxiv, p. 2020.04.08.20058347, 2020.

F. Siskus and D. Arianto, “Prediksi Kasus Covid-19 Di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Backpropagation Dan Fuzzy Tsukamoto,” Jurnal Teknologi Informasi, vol. 4, no. 1, 2020.

W. C. Culp, “Coronavirus Disease 2019,” A & A Practice, vol. 14, no. 6, p. e01218, 2020.